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Prediction for CME (2026-02-25T07:38:00-CME-002)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-25T07:38Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44830/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen only in STEREO A COR2 coronagraph to the E. It is covered by a data gap in SOHO LASCO imagery and is not seen in GOES CCOR-1 imagery. Its source is likely the C2.6 flare peaking at 2026-02-25T06:56Z (S08W27), with an associated minor-size eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304 as brightening/dimming and post-eruptive arcades. There is also a type II radio emission associated with this event.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-28T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):456
Longitude (deg):0
Latitude (deg):-5
Half-angular width (deg):30

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2026 Feb 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels during the reporting period. The
strongest event was an M2.3 flare at 25/1154 UTC from new Region 4379
(S16E74, Bxo/beta), which was numbered following the flare as it rotated
into view over the east limb. This activity was preceded by several
C-class flares originating from just beyond the southeast limb near S21.
Two new regions were numbered during the period: Region 4378 (N17E75,
Hsx/alpha) and Region 4379. High-confidence analysis of their full
extent and magnetic complexity is not yet possible due to foreshortening
and as the limb may be obscuring trailing components of the groups.

The only eruptive activity of note was an approximate 5-degree filament
eruption from near S08W27 that was associated with a C2.6 flare at
25/0656 UTC. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep with an
estimated shock velocity of 595 km/s. STEREO A COR2 imagery showed two
related CMEs beginning at 25/0753 UTC. Modeling suggests Earth-directed
impacts concentrated from late on 28 February to mid-day on 01 March. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 28
Feb, with a high chance for isolated M-class activity
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), primarily due to the eruptive potential of
Region 4379.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels during the day, with a peak of 10,494 pfu at 25/1710 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate to
high levels on 26-28 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels through 28 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Solar wind speed
remained enhanced throughout the period, ranging between 500 and 600
km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged near 5 nT, while the
North-South (Bz) component fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. The Phi angle
was predominantly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 26 Feb and
much of 27 Feb due to waning coronal hole influences, before returning
toward nominal levels by 28 Feb. However, new enhancements are possible
late on 28 Feb due to the 25 Feb eruption.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24
hours due to persistent negative polarity CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to reach active levels on
26 Feb as -CH HSS influence persists. As -CH HSS influence wanes,
usettled conditions are anticipated on 27-28 Feb with active periods
possible late on 28 Feb due to the 25 Feb eruption.

Lead Time: 78.53 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-02-25T16:28Z

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